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| Group: Metastock Trading Systems |
| Title: Forecast Oscillator Trading System |
| Description: Many moons ago, I posted a little linear regression system that featured the Forecast Oscillator. The response was surprising (lots of it) and today, I still communicate with many of the original respondents. I've continued to use the same "framework" for my testing. In an earlier post today (a private email that made it to the list...I'm a little dingy tonight...had to get up a 5 am to trade cocoa), I alluded to using the CMO. I've used many indicators in these tests (i.e., Forecast Oscillator, a modified Time Series Forecast, MACD Histogram, Bollinger Band Histogram, CMO, & others).
Before I explain the method to my madness, please read the following sentences carefully. Backtesting systems is very dangerous. The act of backtesting is not the dangerous part... believing that the results can be duplicated in the future is very dangerous. Let's face it, we are "best fitting" circumstances to static prices etched in stone. So please, I'd prefer not to hear the lectures about the folly I pursue. I've been system testing since 1975 and I've made a bazillion mistakes (and a little chump change) over the years. I'm still looking for the holy grail. So, here's the outline:
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| Author/Source: Steve Karnish
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